Russia’s Existential Threat is China, Not America

Casualties in the Ukraine war now exceed 500,000, with recent escalation threatening a much wider conflict. But assuming this war does not spin out of control in the next several weeks, incoming president Trump has one argument for a negotiated peace that the Russians may find irresistible. The long-term threat to Russian sovereignty is not NATO but China. Putin recognized this early in his presidency when he considered joining NATO. What a difference a few decades make. Now, there is nothing the Chinese would rather see than a horrific, all-out war between NATO and Russia, and they might just get their wish.

China is supplying critical components and dual-use technologies, including machine tools and microelectronics, that help sustain Russia’s weapons industry. China and Russia have held joint military exercises designed to develop cooperation between their militaries. But while China is supporting Russia today, China’s past and likely future with Russia tell a very different story.

During what the Chinese refer to as their “century of humiliation,” the period from 1838 through 1949, imperial powers sliced off and took control of large portions of territory that the Chinese believe historically belong to them. While much of that is debatable—Tibet and the South China Sea come immediately to mind—that doesn’t change the fact of their resolve to take all of it back. The extent of Russian territory that China could theoretically lay claim to is vast.

In 1860, the Russian Empire seized northern Manchuria, including what is now the city of Vladivostok. In 1921, Russian forces expelled a Chinese army that was attempting to recover Outer Mongolia, which had declared independence from China ten years earlier. During the 1800s, the Russians extended their empire throughout much of Central Asia, including territory that the Chinese had controlled in previous centuries. A map of China’s hypothetical claims to what is either part of Russia or within Russia’s sphere of influence today would, if realized, increase the territory of the Chinese nation by over two million square miles.

It isn’t merely redress for perceived historical injustice, however, that motivates China to have an appetite for Russian territory. It’s also economic necessity. Imagine China’s predicament in a serious conflict with the United States. Merely playing defense, the U.S. Navy could deny China access to food from South America, oil from the Middle East, minerals from Australia, and fish from the open ocean. China’s need for Russia’s vast mineral and agricultural resources would become existential.

The threat China poses to Russia goes even beyond a historical grievance and an economic imperative; however, it is demographic. Within its borders, China hosts a population of 1.4 billion people, all of whom aspire to a higher standard of living. As it is, China imports more than 60 percent of its oil and relies on imports for more than a third of its food. Even these statistics don’t tell the whole story. A 2023 analysis by the German Economics Institute found that “China has the highest import/export ratios for raw materials and foodstuffs, i.e., it imports significantly more than it exports. These are about 60 to 1 for ores, 36 to 1 for meat, and 18 to 1 for grain.” When China examines how to best secure the resources they are going to need no matter what, they look north.

And what a target. Russia’s vast eastern territories encompass three federal regions, representing 77 percent of its total land mass but only 25 percent of its total population of 145 million. And the further east you go, the more land and the fewer people. The federal district of Ural, the first stop on the way east from Russia’s European heartland, is 700,000 square miles with a population of 12 million; 18 people per square mile. Moving east, the next district is Siberia, with 1.7 million square miles and a population of 17 million; 10 people per square mile. And then comes the gigantic Far East federal district, neighbor to China, covering 2.7 million square miles with only 8 million people—only 3 people per square mile. And immediately south of this resource-heavy, population-light, endless territory lies seething, voracious China, with 1.4 billion people who are hungry for everything that land has to offer.

Russia’s far east is so underpopulated there aren’t enough people to mine, drill, log, or farm, no matter how much their government may want to partner with China to sell them the fruits of the land. As a result, Russia already depends on Chinese workers to occupy Russian land. A 2019 report by European Security and Defense characterized the Chinese migration into Russia’s far east as a “Ticking Bomb.” Nobody knows how many Chinese now live there, but since the 1990s they have poured in. An estimate quoted by ABC News in 2000 put the number at 1.5 million.

Where there are people and resources, there is money. The Observer Research Foundation calculated major Chinese investment in Russia’s far east just in 2022 at $3.4 billion. Quoting further from the report, “In May 2023, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yury Trutnev stated that more than 90 percent of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the Far East—26 infrastructural projects worth US$1.6 billion—were being financed by Chinese state companies.” And in a dark but perhaps unsurprising bit of hybrid influence, ruthless Chinese gangs are spreading throughout the Russian Far East, and it wouldn’t be a stretch to see the day when they become an instrument of regime power.

Russia is at a crossroads. To suggest their aggression against Ukraine is entirely unfounded is as naive as pretending it is completely justified. But if this war escalates into a full-blown European conflagration, the only unequivocal winner will be China, unscathed and emergent. If so, as they pick up the pieces in a shattered world, the first place they’re going to go is Russia. They have the motivation of history, the imperative to secure resources, and the millions of people already there.

If Russia wants to remain an intact nation, they are going to need to align themselves with the West. That may not be their ideal choice, but it is the only one they’ve got.

This article originally appeared in American Greatness.

Edward Ring

Edward Ring is a contributing editor and senior fellow with the California Policy Center, which he co-founded in 2013 and served as its first president. He is also a senior fellow with the Center for American Greatness, and a regular contributor to the California Globe. His work has appeared in the Los Angeles Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Economist, Forbes, and other media outlets.

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