California’s Future – Hilton and Bianco: Mutually Assured GOP Destruction?
In an orgy of phony panic, progressive prognosticators across California fret over what in reality is an extremely implausible scenario. Their doomsday calculations go something like this: If GOP candidates routinely attract 40 percent of the vote in statewide elections, and the current GOP candidates for governor, Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco, end up in a dead heat when the primary votes are finally counted, that would give them 20 percent each. Meanwhile, eight determined Democratic candidates are fighting for the nomination, and what if they split the remaining 60 percent into eight different pieces? The horror!
Republicans in California, needless to say, are delighted with this scenario. But California didn’t become a one-party state because the unions and oligarchs who call the shots are incompetent. The chances they’re going to allow eight Democrat candidates to stay in this race as strong contenders are next to none. Well in advance of the primary on June 2, California’s major political power brokers are going to determine which two or three candidates are most competitive and most compliant, and the other five or six candidates are then going to experience political pressure to drop out, pressure that will intensify with every objection they raise. If they resist and persist with their candidacy after the powers that be tell them they are to be excluded, the price they pay will be permanent political oblivion. It happens all the time.
A far more plausible scenario is the opposite. When one Republican gubernatorial candidate dominates the field, they end up on the November ballot, where, if history is any guide, they collect their predictable 40 percent of the total votes cast, acknowledge defeat, and turn the state over to yet another Democratic governor. But when two Republican gubernatorial candidates contend for the nomination, attracting roughly equal support, neither of them is likely to get more than 20 percent. Against a field of Democrats that is almost certainly bound to be winnowed down to two or three candidates, there is a good chance, in fact the biggest chance ever, that come November, Californians will be picking between two Democrats for governor.
So what are the strengths and weaknesses of the GOP candidates, Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco? I’ll confess to a complete lack of objectivity in my own assessment, because before Hilton declared his candidacy, I worked closely with him to assist with ten policy papers that he published through his policy advocacy and research organization, Golden Together. Having had the opportunity to help write in-depth analysis and policy recommendations on topics including energy, water, housing, homelessness, law enforcement, forest management, and the business climate, I gained a pretty good impression of how Hilton approaches policy challenges, and I got to have some influence over how he shaped detailed responses and solutions to those challenges.
What I found to be a strength is something that many hardline Republican grassroots voters perceive as weakness, and that is Hilton’s decision to develop a brand of populism that relies on positive policy innovations, and not on inflammatory rhetoric. This isn’t to say that Steve isn’t taking aggressive positions on many policy issues, but he’s picking his battles. His focus on tackling California’s biggest problems is pragmatic—aimed at making the state hospitable to business, affordable for residents, with safe streets and K–12 schools that deliver results. Steve Hilton has done the hard work of tackling the most difficult issues facing California, and I’ve seen no evidence that his motivations are distorted by special interests. He wants California to be great again, for everyone, and has a detailed, practical political agenda to accomplish that.
When I examine Chad Bianco’s campaign, it is without having had an opportunity to get to know the man and understand how he approaches policy issues. When I hear him speak, my impression is that he is a thoughtful candidate who has attempted to stake out positions sufficiently moderate to have a chance at attracting independent voters. But I very much doubt that Bianco has done the amount of research Hilton has done, nor has he matched the energy Hilton has displayed in traveling constantly across the state for over a year. To be fair, I’m not sure anyone can. If the election were decided based on work ethic, Hilton would win in a landslide.
But no matter how these two candidates are judged by voters, they confront a mathematical reality that is immutable. Right now, according to polling released on March 18, they lead the entire field of candidates with 17 percent and 16 percent, respectively. They may be in the front of the pack, but they are evenly splitting the Republican vote. To assume the Democrats won’t coalesce behind one or two favorites is to ignore history. Without one of the GOP candidates pulling ahead decisively before primary voting begins, there is a good chance Californians will have to choose between two Democrats this November. So which of these individuals could win in November against a Democrat?
That partly depends on which Democrat win on June 2, but even there, it would probably take a scandal to seriously derail a Democratic candidate in November. With Katie Porter or Eric Swalwell, both of whom are strong contenders for the nomination, some kind of October surprise is a possibility. Porter might get caught on camera in a total emotional meltdown. Some previously unknown peccadillo from Swalwell’s past may surface and circulate. And who knows, Steyer, despite the competence of his campaign, may squeak into the top spot but may still be pulled down by his negatives—he’s filthy rich, and he’s not very likeable.
There’s even a chance, because we must never stop hoping that the truth will prevail: progressives have all but destroyed opportunities for most Californians; millions of people and thousands of businesses have fled the state; and any Democratic candidate who thinks they are going to change any of this deserves zero credibility. Maybe, just maybe, California’s voters will finally realize this simple, undeniable fact. Democrats have wielded absolute political power in California for decades, and they are responsible for every single challenge facing ordinary people trying to live and do business in this state.
In a televised gubernatorial debate on February 3 in San Francisco, six Democrats showed up, along with one Republican, Steve Hilton. It wasn’t the entire Democratic field, with Swalwell and Porter absent, nor was Chad Bianco present. But it was a good opportunity for at least one Republican to make the case for his candidacy and for his Party. Hilton did a good job. He is an experienced speaker and has acquired a deep understanding of the issues, and he stuck to his message: Democratic policies have made the state unsafe and unaffordable, so why on earth would anyone want more of the same?
This debate also revealed fractures and fanatics embedded in the Democratic Party. The factions were evident merely from the number of credible candidates all fighting for the nomination. The fanatics were evident in the relentless heckling that members of the partisan crowd directed against Hilton but not anyone else on that stage. It is a tribute to Hilton’s experience and poise that he ignored the disruption and made his points.
It’s not impossible for a Republican to win in California if a Democratic candidate makes a few strategic mistakes.. Based on what I have learned from working closely with him, I believe Steve Hilton has a better chance than Chad Bianco to attract independent voters and disaffected Democrats. Hilton’s ability to formulate balanced and practical policy solutions is sincere and comprehensive.
But unlike in the corridors of the capital, where it is absolutely inevitable that Democratic Party bosses are going to lay down the law and narrow the field, probably in the near future, California’s GOP candidates operate in a more laissez faire environment. If California’s Republican base cannot choose between Hilton or Bianco and give one of them their full support, the gubernatorial ballot in November will be much more likely to feature two Democrats than two Republicans.
This article originally appeared in American Greatness.
Edward Ring is a contributing editor and senior fellow with the California Policy Center, which he co-founded in 2013 and served as its first president. He is also a senior fellow with the Center for American Greatness, and a regular contributor to the California Globe. His work has appeared in the Los Angeles Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Economist, Forbes, and other media outlets.
To help support more content and policy analysis like this, please click here.