Unexplained Excess Deaths Are Increasing

By a significant margin, and according to data reported weekly by the CDC, the death rate in America remains elevated. If nothing else is certain as Americans continue to cope with the most disruptive event in the last half-century, there is one indisputable fact: as the number of cases of COVID decreases over the most recent few months, they now account for less than half of this persistent elevated death rate.

In the six years prior to the COVID era, deaths in the United States averaged between 2.6 and 2.8 million people per year. These averages are adjusted for population growth, and with a population as large as the U.S., the numbers should be, and are, remarkably stable. During the three years immediately preceding the 2020, for example, the population growth adjusted death rate from all causes varied by only 1.5 percent.

None of that is true today. The increases in total deaths – deaths from all causes, not just COVID deaths – is up significantly. In the nine months from April 2020 when COVID first hit hard, through December 2020, a normal death count would have been 2.04 million. Instead, during that period, 2.57 million people died, 26 percent over normal.

Deaths in the U.S. from all causes in 2021 were also well above normal, 3.46 million versus only 2.8 million if it had been a normal year, 24 percent over normal. So far in 2022, with complete data available through August, total deaths were 1.91 million, against a […] Read More