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Excess Deaths in America Are Still Excessive

Trying to accurately track COVID deaths in the United States over the past 30 months has been a fool’s errand. Even if you were to dismiss allegations that hospitals had financial incentives to overemphasize COVID deaths, you still would have to navigate the subjective territory of co-morbidities and where the line is drawn between a death truly attributable to a COVID infection, vs a death that would have happened anyway from some other terminal cause.

Thanks to these ambiguities, leavened by an assortment of institutions including the media, the government, and the medical community, that have lost almost all their credibility with countless millions of Americans, skeptics abound. Just how bad was COVID? How bad is it? Some people still think the entire epidemic was a hoax.

Through the fog of data, so it goes, deaths from pneumonia and the flu fell during the COVID era, getting moved instead to be classified as COVID deaths. According to the hoax theory, the actual danger posed by COVID was greatly overstated, because deaths caused by COVID were overstated. But there is one thing that cannot be as easily obscured via errors in classification, and that is total deaths, from all causes.

Referred to by statisticians and epidemiologists as “excess deaths,” this is a far less controversial data point. After all, it has an unambiguous essence: you are dead, or you are not dead. What may ail you, or how you died, is irrelevant. Since the COVID era began in 2020, using Read More

With 700,000 “Excess Deaths,” What’s Next for America?

There has been a lot of speculation, much of it backed up by evidence, that over the past year, America’s “cause of death” statistics have been skewed. For reasons alleged to be both political and financial, people who did not have a fatal case of COVID were reported as dying from the disease. The classic example is the young man who died in a horrific motorcycle accident, who tested positive for COVID in the post-mortem and was listed as a COVID victim.

Less likely, however, is the possibility that “deaths from all causes” have been misrepresented. Assuming these are CDC statistics that we can rely on, the data tells a grim story. During the 12 month period between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, the number of people dying in the United States exceeded the recent historical average for that same April through March period by 701,680. If anything, this number is understated, because CDC data can take up to eight weeks to fill in completely and our dataset is only updated through May 12.

This is an astonishing increase, representing a 25 percent increase over total deaths in previous years, even when adjusting for population growth. The average deaths for the same 12 month period over the last six years, prior to the most recent twelve months, were 2,845,200. That compares to 3,546,880 in the twelve month period through March 31, 2021. COVID may have mostly targeted the old and the weak, but target them it did. Based […] Read More